This week on the Camden Highball, Pat and I wonder if Steve Pearce can be a super utility player and talk about Jimmy Paredes‘ hot bat. We also talk to Ryan Romano of Camden Depot and Beyond the Boxscore about the less than ideal starts of Bud Norris and Chris Tillman. This week’s episode also features music from Brad Engler.
Direct Link to Article –> The Camden Highball: “That’s Not Good”
Earlier this week, it was reported that Orioles catcher Matt Wieters will start the 2015 season on the disabled list, as he continues to rehab his way back from Tommy John surgery. Luckily, the Orioles still have four catchers in major league camp, who will be competing for starting and backup duties to begin the season. Today at the ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot, I take a look at those options.
Direct Link to Article –> Orioles Catching Options to Start the Season
The Orioles continue to command the AL East, with several media outlets giving them over a 99% chance to not only make the playoffs, but to win the division. With the playoffs in mind, Baltimore made a couple of transactions (through trades and expanded rosters) to not only help finish the season strong, but to also improve the team for the postseason. Today at ESPN Sweetspot Orioles blog Camden Depot, I take a quick look at these roster moves and how they’ll help the team moving forward.
Direct Link to Article –> Quick Thoughts on Recent Roster Changes
Following a surprise playoff appearance in 2012, the Baltimore Orioles finished the 2013 season with an 85-77 record, 12 games out of first place in the American League East and 7 games out of the wild card spot. Despite not making the playoffs, the 2013 team was arguably more talented than the 2012 team, due to reasons that we’ve discussed before. This offseason was relatively quiet until around the start of spring training when the team made several moves to improve roster holes leftover from 2013 (starting rotation and designated hitter). Despite what looks to be an upgraded team, the Zips Projection System at Fangraphs currently sees them finishing the 2014 season at the bottom of the AL East with a record of 78-84. Let’s take a closer look at how Zips came to that conclusion.* This is more informative than actual analysis, but I think it is still be a worthwhile exercise.
*Note: this post as written before Zips made its final projections for the season, so things will probably change slightly in the next week.
Catcher
2014 Zips Projection
In 2013, Baltimore catchers produced a total of 1.9 fWAR, which placed them 18th in all of baseball. The bulk of that production came from Matt Wieters (2.4 fWAR), but the backups added -0.5 wins in only 101 plate appearances. Offensively, Zips sees Wieters improving on his disappointing 2013 season, while once again playing a lot at the position.* I personally believe that the projection for Wieters is slightly on the low side, and that he has a decent chance to exceed it.
Let’s get right to it. The 2013 MLB trade deadline was disappointing. Most of the sellers ended up not selling (how could the Phillies not trade ANYONE?!?!?!?!), and a lot of the buyers didn’t buy. With 3 deals over the month of July, including 1 at the deadline, the Baltimore Orioles were one of the more active teams on the trade market. Let’s take a quick look at how they did.
July 2
Orioles get: RHP Scott Feldman and C Steve Clevenger from the Chicago Cubs
Orioles give: RHP Jake Arrieta, RHP Pedro Strop, and two international signing bonus slots (approximately $388K)
Even though Feldman hasn’t pitched particularly well in his month with the Orioles (5.70 ERA in 6 starts) I thought this was a great trade. We’ve talked about it a few times now, but it’s worth mentioning again that the Orioles really needed some starting pitching help. Recognizing that need, they did well to go out and get Feldman early in the month of July, rather than wait until the deadline. Feldman isn’t anything close to an ace, but he’s a guy that will limit walks and give you quality innings. He’s basically your average MLB starter (on pace for about 2.0 fWAR), and adding an average starter is a huge upgrade in the Orioles starting rotation.
I still WANT to have faith that Arrieta and Strop will be effective pitchers, but I think it was time for them to move on. Both guys can put up huge strikeout numbers and occasionally look brilliant, but they are frustratingly inconsistent. They often have a lot of trouble finding the strikezone, which greatly limits their effectiveness.
July 23
Orioles get: RHP Francisco Rodriguez from the Milwaukee Brewers
Orioles give: 3B/1B Nick Delmonico
Doug took a brief look at this trade a couple weeks ago when he was going over relief options for the Orioles prior to the deadline, and mentioned how he thought this was a good deal for the Orioles to make. I respectfully disagree. It’s not that Rodriguez won’t help Baltimore down the stretch, or that I believe Delmonico will be a future star. It’s because I think Delmonico is too good of a prospect to give up for 20-25 innings of relief pitching. Personally, I think teams should be able to find effective relief pitching by looking through their couch cushions, so giving up Delmonico was paying too steep of a price.
Delmonico was ranked as Baltimore’s #6 prospect by Baseball Prospectus heading into the season, and while they currently project him as a second division regular, he’s only playing in High A as a 21 year old, so there is a lot of time for that projection to change. If anything, Delmonico is an interesting enough prospect that he could have been used as an enticing part of a larger package that would have brought back a more significant return.
July 31
Orioles get: RHP Bud Norris from the Houston Astros
Orioles give: OF L.J. Hoes, LHP Josh Hader, Competitive Balance Draft Pick #33
Another trade that I didn’t particularly like. Bud Norris may be the Astros best pitcher, but most talent evaluators view him as a #4 or #5 pitcher, or even a reliever due to his issues with left handed hitters (career .310 wOBA versus righties, career .350 wOBA against lefties). I think Norris will provide a slight improvement this year, but I don’t really see the point of acquiring him after they already got Feldman. I’m sure the fact that Norris won’t be a free agent until 2016 was a big reason the Orioles went after him, and he’s likely viewed as Jason Hammel’s replacement following the season when he becomes a free agent.
While Keith Law of ESPN thought the return for Norris was light (insider access required and encouraged), I disagree. I like Hoes more than most, especially since he has greatly improved his on base abilities this year. He won’t be a star, but I think he could be an average to slightly below average corner outfielder if he can consistently get on base. While Hoes doesn’t have much projection left, Hader has a ton. Baseball Prospectus ranked Hader as the Orioles 10th best prospect prior to the season, as a projectable LHP currently throwing in Low A. Hader is a high risk prospect though, since he is only 19 years old. Baltimore also gave up their competitive balance pick in next year’s draft, tentatively #33 overall. I likely would have given up Hoes and either Hader or the pick for Norris, but not both.
Even though I wasn’t a fan of 2 of the 3 deals the Orioles made, I am hoping I’ll be proven wrong. I’ll gladly admit that I also may put too much value in prospects, when the reality is that most of them won’t ever contribute to the major league team. In the end, Baltimore improved their team’s chances of making the playoffs (ESPN insider required, again), without giving up anything of value or sacrificing their future. And by doing that, it’s hard to fault them for making these moves when a playoff birth is within striking distance for the second year in a row.
Orioles Proving Ground 