Yesterday, there was a new episode of the Camden Highball podcast over at ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot to help you get the week started. Pat and I talked to Jeff Long of Baseball Prospectus and Baltimore Sports and Life about Oliver Drake, Steve Pearce, and Manny Machado.
Direct Link to Article –> The Camden Highball: The Rosters They Are a-Movin
Yesterday, the Orioles played the White Sox in front of an empty stadium at Camden Yards. The game was televised, so I watched the majority of it and today at ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot, I talk a little bit about how strange that was.
Direct Link to Article –> Watching a Strange Ballgame in Baltimore
Despite both teams sweeping their opponents in the ALDS, each series was fairly close, and if a few breaks had gone the other way, each series could have easily gone to a 4th or 5th game. But that’s not what happened. The Royals came up big twice in extra winnings to notch wins, while the Orioles had two REALLY big 8th innings in their first two games to take control of their series against the Tigers. Now we have an ALCS with two teams that are in a lot of ways, very similar to each other. The Kansas City Royals haven’t seen the World Series since 1985 and the Baltimore Orioles haven’t been since 1983. Just the fact that one of these teams (and their fans) will finally make it back there after such a long time is pretty exciting. Continue reading
Over the last 2 off seasons, one of the main issues the Orioles have needed to address was their lineup’s ability to get on base. That issue wasn’t addressed before the 2013 season, as the team finished towards the bottom of the league in OBP, and was ranked dead last in BB% in the American League (ok, they weren’t DEAD last, they were tied for dead last). While they made some newsworthy acquisitions during this past offseason, it wasn’t clear that they did anything to improve their on base skills, and two weeks into the season, it’s starting to look pretty obvious that they didn’t. It’s very early in the season though, so do they have a chance to be a better OBP team? I take a look at it today over on ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot.
Direct Link to Article –> Orioles Still Have a Problem Getting On Base
Following a surprise playoff appearance in 2012, the Baltimore Orioles finished the 2013 season with an 85-77 record, 12 games out of first place in the American League East and 7 games out of the wild card spot. Despite not making the playoffs, the 2013 team was arguably more talented than the 2012 team, due to reasons that we’ve discussed before. This offseason was relatively quiet until around the start of spring training when the team made several moves to improve roster holes leftover from 2013 (starting rotation and designated hitter). Despite what looks to be an upgraded team, the Zips Projection System at Fangraphs currently sees them finishing the 2014 season at the bottom of the AL East with a record of 78-84. Let’s take a closer look at how Zips came to that conclusion.* This is more informative than actual analysis, but I think it is still be a worthwhile exercise.
*Note: this post as written before Zips made its final projections for the season, so things will probably change slightly in the next week.
Catcher
2014 Zips Projection
In 2013, Baltimore catchers produced a total of 1.9 fWAR, which placed them 18th in all of baseball. The bulk of that production came from Matt Wieters (2.4 fWAR), but the backups added -0.5 wins in only 101 plate appearances. Offensively, Zips sees Wieters improving on his disappointing 2013 season, while once again playing a lot at the position.* I personally believe that the projection for Wieters is slightly on the low side, and that he has a decent chance to exceed it.
The “Making the Orioles a Champion in 2014” series at ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog, Camden Depot rolls on. This time I take a look at the shortstop position, which has been occupied by J.J. Hardy since 2011. Hardy has been solid as a rock since joining Baltimore, but should the team look to trade him in the offseason and allow Manny Machado to move back to his natural position? Check out my post on Camden Depot and find out.
Direct Link to Article –> Making the Orioles a Champion in 2014: Shortstop
Friends and fans, we are gathered here today to remember the extremely promising, but ultimately unfulfilling life of the 2013 Baltimore Orioles, as their season officially came to an end. Building on the playoff appearance last year that many analysts called “lucky”, the Orioles made a valiant effort to return to the playoffs, only to fall out of contention (mathematically) with 5 games remaining, due to an ill-timed losing streak at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays.
This week’s post will again be featured on Camden Depot , the ESPN Sweetspot Network blog for the Baltimore Orioles. The post this week takes a look at Manny Machado, and tries to find out if all those doubles he is hitting this year will turn into future home runs. Head over to Camden Depot and check it out, along with all the other great analysis they do.
Direct Link to the Post –> Manny Machado and Turning Present Doubles into Future Home Runs
2008
I know that the previous posts looking at Baltimore’s first round draft picks may have been a little depressing, but I’m sure you already know that things start looking up in 2008.
1-4 – Brian Matusz (LHP) from University of San Diego
Well, kind of looking up in 2008. Another Baltimore pitcher drafted that was a top prospect with high expectations, Matusz hasn’t exactly lived up to them. He looked like a promising starter in 2009 and 2010, but struggled in 2011 and 2012 before moving to the bullpen late last year. While every team needs a good left-handed reliever, I don’t think that’s what teams are looking to get when they have the 4th overall pick in the draft.
Xavier Avery (2nd round) and L.J. Hoes (3rd round) were both selected in this draft as well. Both have been ranked as top ten prospects for Baltimore (Hoes was the #7 Orioles prospect prior to the 2013 season, while Avery last appeared prior to 2011 at #4 according to Baseball Prospectus) and each have spent limited time with the major league club. Unfortunately, it appears no one else from that draft will provide an impact for Baltimore. Additionally, both Hoes and Avery have ceilings of 4th outfielders.
Buster Posey was selected by the Giants immediately following Baltimore’s pick of Matusz, and to date, he is easily the best player to come out of that first round. Although, other than win NL Rookie of the Year (2010) and the NL MVP (2012), while leading the Giants to 2 World Series championships in 2 of 3 years, he hasn’t done much.
2009
If only we could pretend like the 2009 draft never happened. Baltimore had another high pick and thought it wise to use it on…
1-5 – Matthew Hobgood (RHP) from Norco HS (Norco, CA)
From what I found, this pick was generally viewed as an overdraft by the rest of the league at the time, but as a big, sturdy guy (i.e., chunky), Hobgood would be able to eat up some innings as a starting pitcher. A description from the 2011 Baseball Prospectus Annual did not inspire confidence, and his results leading up to a 2011 shoulder injury didn’t inspire it either. After sitting out all of 2012, Hobgood has returned to Low-A this year as a reliever (posting good results to date) and has a chance to provide some value in the future in that role. However, as mentioned before (COUGH, Brian Matusz, COUGH), no one HOPES to draft a future reliever with the 5th overall pick.
Some of the players drafted after Hobgood include Zack Wheeler at #6 (#5 overall prospect ranked by Baseball Prospectus in 2013), Mike Minor at #7, and Shelby Miller at #19. However, Baltimore (along with 21 other teams) are probably wishing they could re-do this draft and select Mike Trout, who has already accumulated 13.7 WAR in just 237 games.
No one from Baltimore’s 2009 draft has reached the big leagues, and no one is a Baseball Prospectus top 10 prospect either, so let’s just move on to the 2010 draft.
2010
Hopefully you’ve stuck around this far, because 2010 is when it starts to get good.
1-3 – Manny Machado (SS) from Brito Miami Private School (Miami, FL)
Ummm, this was a nice pick. I was fortunate enough to watch Machado play a lot last year while I worked for the Orioles, videotaping at AA Bowie. It was obvious he had the tools and make-up to become an all-star caliber player. Although I did not think he would find so much success offensively this quickly (I am happy to be proven wrong). A lot has been written recently about how good Machado is, and it’s difficult to disagree. It’s early, but he is currently on the short list of MVP candidates, with the 4th highest WAR to date (3.1) in all of baseball. Oh, and he’s not even old enough to drink yet.
The rest of the draft doesn’t look like it went so well, as no one else has reached the majors. No one is populating the Baseball Prospectus top 10 prospect list either. It’s still early for this draft class though, so there’s time for potential impact players to help the big league club.
Matt Harvey and Chris Sale were selected after Machado, as well as some interesting prospects still in the minor leagues, but I’d rather have Machado.
2011
It’s still very difficult to consider the 2011 draft as a success or failure, due to the time needed for draft picks to develop. But the 2011 selection of Dylan Bundy looks like a strong first round pick.
1-4 – Dylan Bundy (RHP) from Owasso HS (Owasso, OK)
There were reports at the time of this draft that many scouts believed Bundy was good enough to jump straight to the major leagues from high school. And while I am no scout, after seeing him pitch in Bowie last year, I don’t think that assessment was too far removed from reality. Bundy has an impressive arsenal of pitches, as well as great command and maturity on and off the field. Some elbow issues at the beginning of the year has kept him from pitching so far in 2013, but if he’s healthy, he has the ceiling of an ace and probably the floor of a #2 starter. He was Baltimore’s #1 prospect in 2013 according to basically every prospect list, and ranked #4 overall by Baseball Prospectus.
Two other 2011 draftees show up in the current Orioles top 10 prospect list, including #5 RHP Mike Wright (3rd round) and #6 3B Nick Delmonico (6th round).
Right now, Bundy looks like the best selection the Orioles could have made in this draft, but it’s far too soon to definitively say that.
Orioles Proving Ground 