Archive for the Draft Category

Blueprint for the 2016 Orioles (Option 3): Building Major League Depth and a Minor League System

Posted in Draft, Free Agency, Offense, Offseason, Pitching, Rule 4 with tags , , , , , , , on October 9, 2015 by oriolesprovingground

Over the course of this week and next, the writers of ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot have been putting forth their plans on how they would construct the 2016 Orioles given a budget of $120 million. After everyone has given their thoughts, editor and founder Jon Shepherd will decide which direction to take (or which combination of directions to take). The first two options have been posted earlier this week and I’m up next. My strategy involves building depth at the major league level by adding free agents who aren’t tied to draft pick compensation. This allows the Orioles to keep their picks and add additional draft selections through the loss of their own free agents.

Direct Link to Article –> Building Major League Depth and a Minor League System

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The Camden Highball (Episode 12): Previewing the 2015 MLB Draft

Posted in Draft, Podcast, Rule 4 with tags , , , , on June 1, 2015 by oriolesprovingground

There is a new episode of the Camden Highball up today.  Pat and I talk to former Camden Depot writer Nick Faleris about next week’s MLB Rule 4 Player Draft and get his general thoughts on what he sees in the 2015 Baltimore Orioles.

Direct Link to Article –> The Camden Highball: Previewing the 2015 MLB Draft

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The Futility of Mock Drafts: 2014

Posted in Draft, Rule 4 with tags on June 6, 2014 by oriolesprovingground

Last year I looked at the accuracy of ESPN’s Keith Law final mock draft, along with the draft simulator, which basically performed a brand new mock draft after each pick was actually taken. This year ESPN didn’t run a draft simulator so I brought in mock drafts from other experts to see how each one of them performed picking the first round of the draft. We have Keith Law of ESPN, Jonathon Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com, and John Manuel of Baseball America. Here is a list of the results where green indicates a correct pick (click to enlarge).

MLB Draft

 

I gave Keith Law and John Manuel credit for both of their Toronto Blue Jays picks, as they each picked the correct players, but in the wrong order. Law picked the most correct draftees, however, all experts were fairly close to each other in the number of correct picks. No analysis here, just a fun little exercise. Hope everyone enjoyed the draft!

*Programming Note: I will be leaving for a vacation today, so no posts for the next 2 weeks. I’ll see everyone on June 23.

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Making Amends for Yesterday’s Winter Meetings Post

Posted in Draft, Offseason, Rule 5 with tags , , , , , on December 14, 2013 by oriolesprovingground

Yesterday’s post was meant to be funny, as it was intentionally left blank because the Orioles didn’t really do anything at the Winter Meetings.  And when I say “do anything”, I of course mean that they didn’t make any trades or sign any players to their major league roster.  They were all over the rumor mill, and it was even reported that they had several offers out to players, including right-handed closer Grant Balfour and outfielder Nelson Cruz (although the reports as to whether they actually had an offer out to Cruz were conflicting).

Additionally, they did make two selections in Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft, one in the major league portion and one in the minor league (AAA) portion.  If you don’t know anything about the Rule 5 Draft, click here to increase your knowledge and therefore your power (because knowledge IS power).  Rule 5 draft picks are not something to normally get excited about as they rarely pan out.  Still, there is a chance that a team could pick up a productive player in the Rule 5 Draft, even if the chances are slim.  If you want proof, all of the following are Rule 5 draftees: Continue reading →

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2013 Trade Deadline Wrap Up

Posted in Draft, Pitching, Prospects, Rule 4, Trades with tags , , , , , , , , on August 5, 2013 by oriolesprovingground

Let’s get right to it.  The 2013 MLB trade deadline was disappointing.  Most of the sellers ended up not selling (how could the Phillies not trade ANYONE?!?!?!?!), and a lot of the buyers didn’t buy.  With 3 deals over the month of July, including 1 at the deadline, the Baltimore Orioles were one of the more active teams on the trade market.  Let’s take a quick look at how they did.

July 2

Orioles get: RHP Scott Feldman and C Steve Clevenger from the Chicago Cubs

Orioles give: RHP Jake Arrieta, RHP Pedro Strop, and two international signing bonus slots (approximately $388K)

Even though Feldman hasn’t pitched particularly well in his month with the Orioles (5.70 ERA in 6 starts) I thought this was a great trade.  We’ve talked about it a few times now, but it’s worth mentioning again that the Orioles really needed some starting pitching help.  Recognizing that need, they did well to go out and get Feldman early in the month of July, rather than wait until the deadline.  Feldman isn’t anything close to an ace, but he’s a guy that will limit walks and give you quality innings.  He’s basically your average MLB starter (on pace for about 2.0 fWAR), and adding an average starter is a huge upgrade in the Orioles starting rotation.

I still WANT to have faith that Arrieta and Strop will be effective pitchers, but I think it was time for them to move on.  Both guys can put up huge strikeout numbers and occasionally look brilliant, but they are frustratingly inconsistent.  They often have a lot of trouble finding the strikezone, which greatly limits their effectiveness.

July 23

Orioles get:  RHP Francisco Rodriguez from the Milwaukee Brewers

Orioles give:  3B/1B Nick Delmonico

Doug took a brief look at this trade a couple weeks ago when he was going over relief options for the Orioles prior to the deadline, and mentioned how he thought this was a good deal for the Orioles to make.  I respectfully disagree.  It’s not that Rodriguez won’t help Baltimore down the stretch, or that I believe Delmonico will be a future star.  It’s because I think Delmonico is too good of a prospect to give up for 20-25 innings of relief pitching.  Personally, I think teams should be able to find effective relief pitching by looking through their couch cushions, so giving up Delmonico was paying too steep of a price.

Delmonico was ranked as Baltimore’s #6 prospect by Baseball Prospectus heading into the season, and while they currently project him as a second division regular, he’s only playing in High A as a 21 year old, so there is a lot of time for that projection to change.  If anything, Delmonico is an interesting enough prospect that he could have been used as an enticing part of a larger package that would have brought back a more significant return.

July 31

Orioles get:  RHP Bud Norris from the Houston Astros

Orioles give:  OF L.J. Hoes, LHP Josh Hader, Competitive Balance Draft Pick #33

Another trade that I didn’t particularly like. Bud Norris may be the Astros best pitcher, but most talent evaluators view him as a #4 or #5 pitcher, or even a reliever due to his issues with left handed hitters (career .310 wOBA versus righties, career .350 wOBA against lefties).  I think Norris will provide a slight improvement this year, but I don’t really see the point of acquiring him after they already got Feldman.  I’m sure the fact that Norris won’t be a free agent until 2016 was a big reason the Orioles went after him, and he’s likely viewed as Jason Hammel’s replacement following the season when he becomes a free agent.

While Keith Law of ESPN thought the return for Norris was light (insider access required and encouraged), I disagree. I like Hoes more than most, especially since he has greatly improved his on base abilities this year.  He won’t be a star, but I think he could be an average to slightly below average corner outfielder if he can consistently get on base.   While Hoes doesn’t have much projection left, Hader has a ton.  Baseball Prospectus ranked Hader as the Orioles 10th best prospect prior to the season, as a projectable LHP currently throwing in Low A.  Hader is a high risk prospect though, since he is only 19 years old.  Baltimore also gave up their competitive balance pick in next year’s draft, tentatively #33 overall.  I likely would have given up Hoes and either Hader or the pick for Norris, but not both.

Even though I wasn’t a fan of 2 of the 3 deals the Orioles made, I am hoping I’ll be proven wrong.  I’ll gladly admit that I also may put too much value in prospects, when the reality is that most of them won’t ever contribute to the major league team. In the end, Baltimore improved their team’s chances of making the playoffs (ESPN insider required, again), without giving up anything of value or sacrificing their future. And by doing that, it’s hard to fault them for making these moves when a playoff birth is within striking distance for the second year in a row.

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The Futility of Mock Drafts

Posted in Draft, Prospects, Rule 4 with tags , , on June 8, 2013 by oriolesprovingground

Last night, Major League Baseball held the first 2 rounds of its first year player draft and the Orioles selected high school left-handed pitcher Hunter Harvey with their first round pick (#22 overall).  Now, I’m not going to pretend that I know anything special about any of these amateur players, because I haven’t seen any of them play on video, let alone in person.  The only thing I know about the players drafted last night is based on what I saw about them in the many articles I read leading up to the draft.  From what I have seen, Harvey projects as a potential ace, but has questions regarding his arm action and his ability to throw an effective third pitch, which makes him a future relief pitcher to some evaluators.

Was it a good pick?  Well, Baseball America had Harvey ranked as the #33 prospect in the draft, while Keith Law of ESPN had him as his #24 prospect.  Based on this, he probably went about where he was expected to go.  But did any of the many mock drafts from various (extremely well qualified in my opinion) baseball analysts predict that Harvey would be selected by the Orioles?  Yes, actually.  Keith Law predicted that the Orioles would select Harvey, however, none of the other analysts predicted that result (Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com).  I think the fact that even one of them got it is amazing.  I imagine for the writers that putting mock drafts together are extremely difficult and time consuming, only to get almost all of it wrong.  Based on this I thought it would be fun to see just how wrong Keith Law’s mock draft would end up (maybe fun is the wrong word, let’s change that to “interesting”).

Before going into this, I would like to mention that Keith Law is one of my favorite baseball writers, and I view him as being one of the most intelligent and thoughtful analysts in the sport.  Basically, if he can’t get a mock draft right, then no one can.

So first, let’s look at how Law did, pick for pick. Overall, Law correctly picked 7 out of 33 players correctly in the first round.  That’s 21%.  With regards to both Pittsburgh and Texas (who both had 2 first round picks), he correctly predicted a player they picked, but at the other selection (for example, Law predicted Reese McGuire would go to the Pirates at #9, but instead, the Pirates selected McGuire at #14).  So we’ll give him partial credit for that.  Additionally, Law was mostly correct in the names that would go in the first round, regardless of team, as only 6 players he projected to be picked in the first round were not selected (mostly at the back end).  Overall, I thought this was pretty impressive, given the extremely fluid nature of the draft.

Additionally, for the first time (at least I don’t remember them doing it for baseball before), ESPN rolled out a draft simulator based on Law’s final mock draft.  Basically, the user could plug any potential player into any draft spot, and (based on the Law’s mock and different scenarios) it would predict how the remaining picks would pan out.  I decided to keep track of how many times I would have to change this, with the logic being that as the draft proceeded, the less the simulation would change because of the increased information of what had already taken place (I really hope this isn’t confusing).  Anyway, I had to change the simulator a total of 21 times, meaning the total number of correct picks throughout the draft was slightly better than Law’s mock draft (36%), but not as much as I thought it would be.  Interestingly enough, I had to change the simulation for the Orioles pick, since based on what had already happened, the simulation no longer thought Baltimore would take Harvey.

So if a mock draft has no chance to be even close to right, why even read them?  Because they’re fun to read.  They give us a head start on who our favorite team may pick and provide encouragement to learn more about that player (or players).  For a second, it allows us to get drawn into those players’ overwhelming potential and visualize them becoming a once in a generation talent who will wear your favorite teams colors for their entire career, even though in the back of your mind, you know there’s a strong likelihood he won’t be drafted by your team and may never even make it to the major leagues.  Maybe that’s just me, but I hope Keith Law and the other writers continue producing mock drafts every year, knowing full well that there’s no chance they will ever come close to being right.

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Orioles Draft Retrospective: 2012 and Conclusions

Posted in Draft, Prospects, Rule 4 with tags , on June 6, 2013 by oriolesprovingground

2012

Using advanced mathematics, I’ve determined that the 2012 draft happened only one year ago, and similar to the 2011 draft, it is way too soon to grade the Orioles on it.  And you may already know this, but the Orioles used their first round pick on…

1-4 – Kevin Gausman (RHP) from Louisiana State University

So far this looks like it was an excellent pick by the Orioles.  Gausman has already made his major league debut (after only 61.1 minor league innings) and his stuff looks filthy, even if his results don’t quite match up yet (we took a look at his debut a week ago or so).  He was the Orioles #2 ranked prospect in 2013 behind Dylan Bundy and was ranked #13 overall by Baseball Prospectus.  Scouts project him to be a #2 starter, maybe even a #1a starter behind Bundy.

Other Baltimore picks in the 2012 draft that show up in Baseball Prospectus’ top 10 list include #8 RHP Branden Kline (selected in 2nd round), #9 SS Adrian Marin (selected in 3rd round), and #10 LHP Josh Hader (selected in 19th round).  Again, these players are not close to helping the big league club, so there is plenty of time for them to improve, fail, or be passed on the list by other members of the draft class.

There are a lot of interesting prospects who were taken after Gausman, and it’s too soon to say if this was the absolute best pick.  However, it’s hard to argue with it, when you consider Gausman’s projected ceiling along with the fact that he was the first player drafted in the first round to reach the big leagues.

Conclusion

Here is the total list of players from the 2000-2012 drafts who have contributed positive WAR (according to Fangraphs) on Baltimore’s major league club.

Orioles Draft Picks

The WAR in the table only includes players who contributed a positive WAR.  Draftees producing a negative WAR for the Orioles were not included (for example, Xavier Avery contributed -0.2 WAR last year), so the cumulative WAR the Orioles received from their draft picks since 2000 is going to be lower than 63.8.  I have not looked at the wins above replacement accumulated by other teams from the draft during the same period, but 63.8 seems really low and I’d be shocked if it didn’t rank towards the bottom of the league.  Some points of observation before we wrap this up.

  1. Selecting the right player in the MLB Rule 4 draft is a very difficult job
  2. Having said that, with the exception of Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters, the Orioles chose poorly, especially with regards to their first round selections from 2000-2009
  3. All 13 first round picks were in the top 15, 11 were in the top 10, and 7 were in the top 5.  To get such little production out of so many high draft picks is almost impressive (like when your dog eats a whole wheel of cheese and poops in the fridge, you don’t even get mad, because it’s amazing).  It reminds me of a physics test I took in high school where I got all 10 True/False questions wrong.  Maybe both of us would have been better off just guessing.
  4. Drafting well is not the only way to build a winning team.  Trades, free agency, international free agents, waiver claims, Rule 5 Draft picks, etc. also need to be successful.  However, it is an important aspect to building a winning team both directly and indirectly (as draft picks can be used to bring major league talent through trades), and looking at that list does a lot to explain the absence of winning baseball in Baltimore between 1997 and 2012.
  5. Two things are needed to help make a draft pick successful: good scouting to ensure that the right pick is made and good player development to make sure that pick develops into a quality major leaguer.  It is near impossible to differentiate who is responsible for a prospect’s success or failure, and many times both departments deserve credit/blame.
  6. Sometimes stuff happens to these prospects and there is no one to blame but bad luck.  Players get hurt, don’t progress, or sometimes weren’t that good in the first place.

This whole exercise was informative and kind of depressing, but let’s end on a positive note.  In the last three years, the Orioles appear to have used their first round picks on potential stars who could help the team for years to come.  Additionally, Baltimore’s first pick in the 2013 draft is all the way back at #22, the latest they’ve picked since 1998, which is good news, since it means that they won a lot of games the previous year.

Until next time, happy draft watching!

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Orioles Draft Retrospective: 2008-2011

Posted in Draft, Prospects, Rule 4 with tags , , , , , , , , on June 5, 2013 by oriolesprovingground

2008

I know that the previous posts looking at Baltimore’s first round draft picks may have been a little depressing, but I’m sure you already know that things start looking up in 2008.

1-4 – Brian Matusz (LHP) from University of San Diego

Well, kind of looking up in 2008.  Another Baltimore pitcher drafted that was a top prospect with high expectations, Matusz hasn’t exactly lived up to them.  He looked like a promising starter in 2009 and 2010, but struggled in 2011 and 2012 before moving to the bullpen late last year.  While every team needs a good left-handed reliever, I don’t think that’s what teams are looking to get when they have the 4th overall pick in the draft.

Xavier Avery (2nd round) and L.J. Hoes (3rd round) were both selected in this draft as well.  Both have been ranked as top ten prospects for Baltimore (Hoes was the #7 Orioles prospect prior to the 2013 season, while Avery last appeared prior to 2011 at #4 according to Baseball Prospectus) and each have spent limited time with the major league club.  Unfortunately, it appears no one else from that draft will provide an impact for Baltimore.  Additionally, both Hoes and Avery have ceilings of 4th outfielders.

Buster Posey was selected by the Giants immediately following Baltimore’s pick of Matusz, and to date, he is easily the best player to come out of that first round.  Although, other than win NL Rookie of the Year (2010) and the NL MVP (2012), while leading the Giants to 2 World Series championships in 2 of 3 years, he hasn’t done much.

2009

If only we could pretend like the 2009 draft never happened.  Baltimore had another high pick and thought it wise to use it on…

1-5 – Matthew Hobgood (RHP) from Norco HS (Norco, CA)

From what I found, this pick was generally viewed as an overdraft by the rest of the league at the time, but as a big, sturdy guy (i.e., chunky), Hobgood would be able to eat up some innings as a starting pitcher.  A description from the 2011 Baseball Prospectus Annual did not inspire confidence, and his results leading up to a 2011 shoulder injury didn’t inspire it either.  After sitting out all of 2012, Hobgood has returned to Low-A this year as a reliever (posting good results to date) and has a chance to provide some value in the future in that role.  However, as mentioned before (COUGH, Brian Matusz, COUGH), no one HOPES to draft a future reliever with the 5th overall pick.

Some of the players drafted after Hobgood include Zack Wheeler at #6 (#5 overall prospect ranked by Baseball Prospectus in 2013), Mike Minor at #7, and Shelby Miller at #19.  However, Baltimore (along with 21 other teams) are probably wishing they could re-do this draft and select Mike Trout, who has already accumulated 13.7 WAR in just 237 games.

No one from Baltimore’s 2009 draft has reached the big leagues, and no one is a Baseball Prospectus top 10 prospect either, so let’s just move on to the 2010 draft.

2010

Hopefully you’ve stuck around this far, because 2010 is when it starts to get good.

1-3 – Manny Machado (SS) from Brito Miami Private School (Miami, FL)

Ummm, this was a nice pick.  I was fortunate enough to watch Machado play a lot last year while I worked for the Orioles, videotaping at AA Bowie.  It was obvious he had the tools and make-up to become an all-star caliber player.  Although I did not think he would find so much success offensively this quickly (I am happy to be proven wrong).  A lot has been written recently about how good Machado is, and it’s difficult to disagree.  It’s early, but he is currently on the short list of MVP candidates, with the 4th highest WAR to date (3.1) in all of baseball.  Oh, and he’s not even old enough to drink yet.

The rest of the draft doesn’t look like it went so well, as no one else has reached the majors.  No one is populating the Baseball Prospectus top 10 prospect list either.  It’s still early for this draft class though, so there’s time for potential impact players to help the big league club.

Matt Harvey and Chris Sale were selected after Machado, as well as some interesting prospects still in the minor leagues, but I’d rather have Machado.

2011

It’s still very difficult to consider the 2011 draft as a success or failure, due to the time needed for draft picks to develop.  But the 2011 selection of Dylan Bundy looks like a strong first round pick.

1-4 – Dylan Bundy (RHP) from Owasso HS (Owasso, OK)

There were reports at the time of this draft that many scouts believed Bundy was good enough to jump straight to the major leagues from high school.  And while I am no scout, after seeing him pitch in Bowie last year, I don’t think that assessment was too far removed from reality.  Bundy has an impressive arsenal of pitches, as well as great command and maturity on and off the field.  Some elbow issues at the beginning of the year has kept him from pitching so far in 2013, but if he’s healthy, he has the ceiling of an ace and probably the floor of a #2 starter.  He was Baltimore’s #1 prospect in 2013 according to basically every prospect list, and ranked #4 overall by Baseball Prospectus.

Two other 2011 draftees show up in the current Orioles top 10 prospect list, including #5 RHP Mike Wright (3rd round) and #6 3B Nick Delmonico (6th round).

Right now, Bundy looks like the best selection the Orioles could have made in this draft, but it’s far too soon to definitively say that.

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Orioles Draft Retrospective: 2004-2007

Posted in Draft, Prospects, Rule 4 with tags , , , , , , , on June 4, 2013 by oriolesprovingground

2004

After a strong first round pick in the 2003 draft, the Orioles followed up by using their 2004 first round pick on…

1-8 – Wade Townsend (RHP) from Rice University

…and failed to sign him.  This actually didn’t turn out to be a big deal, as Townsend was drafted at #9 overall in 2005 by Tampa Bay and never made it higher than AA in 2008.  In addition, Baltimore did get a compensation pick the following year for not signing Townsend.  While they did not miss out on a future hall of famer, they did pass on quite a few impact talents (including Neil Walker, Billy Butler, and Stephen Drew), most notably Jered Weaver, who was selected by the Angels at #12 and has accumulated 28.3 WAR in his career to date, most of any player in the first round drafted after Townsend.

Brad Bergesen was the only other player to contribute a positive value to the Orioles (in terms of WAR) out of the 2004 draft.

2005

As mentioned above, the Orioles had a compensation pick for failing to sign Wade Townsend the previous year, giving them two first round picks in 2005.

1-13 – Brandon Snyder (C) from Westfield HS (Westfield, VA)

1-48 – Garrett Olson (LHP) from California Polytechnic State University

Neither one of these 2005 first round picks made much of an impact, but both did make it to the major leagues, so compared to most of the years discussed so far, things were looking up!  Snyder compiled a total of 106 PA’s in the majors, with 37 of them coming with the Orioles between 2010 and 2011 (the others with Texas in 2012).  He is currently playing for the Red Sox AAA affiliate.  Olsen, meanwhile, stuck around in the majors a little longer, though with worse results.  He’s pitched almost 300 innings in the big leagues (about half with Baltimore in 2007 and 2008), and has a career ERA of 6.26.  He appears to be no longer playing baseball for a living.

Baltimore selected Nolan Reimold in the 2nd round of the 2005 draft, but due to his multitude of injuries, it can be argued that David Hernandez has been the most valuable player selected by the Orioles in 2005 (13th round), since he was part of the trade to acquire Mark Reynolds.

The first round of the 2005 draft was full of major league stars (seriously, click HERE to see who was drafted that year in the 1st round), but the majority of those players selected were off the board when Baltimore came up to pick.  That doesn’t mean they made the best selection though as they left Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza, and Clay Buchholz on the board.

2006

Once again, the Orioles found themselves with two first round draft picks (pick #32 as a result of losing B.J. Ryan in free agency), and once again, they managed to accomplish very little with both of them.

1-9 – Billy Rowell (3B) from Bishop Eustace Preparatory School (Pennsauken, NJ)

1-32 – Pedro Beato (RHP) from St. Petersburg College

It’s starting to become a little more clear as to why the Orioles 2012 trip to the playoffs was their first one since 1997, as another 1st round pick, this time Billy Rowell never set foot on a major league baseball field, topping out in AA in 2011 (and not playing since).  Beato has made it to the major leagues, but not for the Orioles, as he was selected by the Mets in the 2010 Rule 5 Draft.  He hasn’t done much with his time in MLB though, with a 4.67 career ERA in 79 innings.  He is currently pitching for the Red Sox AAA affiliate.

Two players available when the Orioles made their first selection were Tim Lincecum and Max Scherzer, selected by the Giants and Diamondbacks (respectively) immediately following Baltimore’s pick of Rowell.

As of now, it looks like the best pick to come out of this draft may be Zach Britton, who was selected in the Round 3.  Once a top prospect, Britton has been disappointing to date, but still has enough potential to possibly become a mid-rotation starter.

2007

In the 2007 draft, we finally get a little bit of good news.  The Orioles only had one pick in the first round, but used it wisely on…

1-5 – Matt Wieters (C) from Georgia Institute of Technology

Wieters has been the dependable Orioles backstop since 2009.  He may not have lived up to the high offensive expectations put on him when drafted (at least not yet), but it would be difficult to argue that this was a bad selection, as Wieters has been good offensively, great defensivly (2 gold gloves), and excellent in his durability, (tied for 1st in games caught from 2010-2012).  He has accumulated 13.0 WAR to date, all for Baltimore.

Baltimore really could not have done any better with this pick, although one could make the argument that Jason Heyward would have been a better selection (12.8 career WAR to date). Heyward is younger by 3 years, and probably has more potential at this point, but finding an all-star caliber catcher is usually more difficult than finding an all-star caliber right fielder, so it’s safe to say the Orioles shouldn’t regret this pick.

The Orioles also selected Jake Arrieta in Round 5 (we’ve already covered some of his issues previously), but no one else of significance has contributed to the big league club.  And since that draft was now 6 years ago, it’s slim that anyone else will.  Since I don’t want to end on a down note, here’s a fun fact…Baltimore actually drafted Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson in the 41st round of the 2007 draft…he didn’t sign.

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Orioles Draft Retrospective: 2000-2003

Posted in Draft, Prospects, Rule 4 with tags , , , , , on May 31, 2013 by oriolesprovingground

With the MLB Rule 4 Draft rapidly approaching (the festivities begin June 6), I’m sure that you have seen a lot of draft analysis (as well as mock drafts) all over the interwebs from your favorite baseball writers.  While I appreciate the inclusion among your favorite baseball writers, I am not planning to write up any kind of draft preview (although maybe I’ll do a draft recap).  Instead, I thought it would be interesting to take a brief look at how well the Orioles have drafted since 2000.  We’ll take a look at the team’s first round picks, a first round pick they passed on (but shouldn’t have), and any successful picks they made in later rounds.

2000

The Orioles had two first round picks in the 2000 draft (numbers 14 and 32 overall), the second pick a result of losing Arthur Rhodes to free agency.

1-14 – Beau Hale (RHP) from University of Texas at Austin

1-32 – Tripper Johnson (RHP) from Newport HS (Bellevue, WA)

Don’t get upset at yourself if you’ve never heard of either of these two.  Both players topped out at AA, and neither has played since 2007.  In fact, no one from the Orioles 2000 draft has made it to the major leagues, except for their picks in each of the rounds from 32 to 36, with only one out of five providing positive Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  That lone player was Tim Stauffer (never signed with the Orioles), who has a career 2.1 WAR (according to Fangraphs), all with the San Diego Padres, who drafted him in 2003.

The biggest prize in the first round the Orioles skipped over from that draft was none other than one of my favorite players, Chase Utley (career 52.9 WAR), who was selected by the Phillies at #15, immediately following the Orioles pick of Hale.

2001

The Orioles once again had multiple first round picks, the two extra being given as a result to losing Mike Mussina as a free agent.

1-7 – Chris Smith (LHP) from Cumberland University

1-19 – Mike Fontenot (2B) from Louisiana State University

1-31 – Bryan Bass (SS) from Seminole HS (Seminole, FL)

Fontnenot is the only one of the 3 to make the big leagues, accumulating 4.8 WAR, mostly for the Cubs and Giants (the Orioles traded Fontenot and others in 2005 for the washed up remains of Sammy Sosa).  The one from the first round that got away in 2001 was David Wright, but in fairness, he was drafted 38th overall, so just about every team their shot at him.

The Orioles got their current closer Jim Johnson in the 5th round of the 2001 draft, but really nothing else.

2002

The Orioles had one first round pick in 2002, and they used it on…

1-4 – Adam Loewen (LHP) from Fraser Valley Christian HS (Surrey, BC)

Loewen contributed a total of 1.7 WAR on the mound for the Orioles between 2006 and 2008.  In 2011, he briefly returned to MLB as an outfielder for the Blue Jays (currently on their AAA team).  The only other player from that Orioles draft that produced a positive WAR was John Maine (all of that positive value was with the Mets, who traded for him in 2006).

I don’t know what everyone was thinking leading up to this draft, but looking back, this draft was loaded in the first round, and the Orioles passed on all the following players still on the board when they took Loewen.

#6 – Zack Greinke

#7 – Prince Fielder

#9 – Jeff Francis

#12 – Joe Saunders

#15 – Scott Kazmir

#16 – Nick Swisher

#17 – Cole Hamels

#20 – Denard Span

#25 – Matt Cain

Not the finest moment in the Orioles draft history.

2003

While the Orioles didn’t get much from the 2002 first round pick, they made up for it the following year by selecting…

1-7 – Nick Markakis (OF) from Young Harris College

With a career total of 21.0 WAR to date (all for the Orioles), I think it’s safe to say that this was a good first round pick, regardless of who was still on the board.  But just out of curiosity, let’s take a look and see who was still there in the first round.  Names such as John Danks, Chad Billingsley, Aaron Hill, and Carlos Quentin were still available, but none of them have been more valuable than Markakis.  In fact, Markakis has been the most valuable 1st round pick (according to WAR) from the 2003 draft, period.

Despite the excellent Markakis pick in the first round, the Orioles got nothing else of value out of the 2003 draft.  We’ll stop on that somewhat positive note and pick it back up with 2004-2007 next time.

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