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Matt Wieters Accepts Qualifying Offer: Now What?

Posted in Free Agency, Offense, Offseason, Pitching with tags , , , , , , , , on November 21, 2015 by oriolesprovingground

Last Friday Matt Wieters surprised many by accepting the qualifying offer the Orioles made him. As a result, he will now be a member of the 2016 Orioles on a one year, $15.8 million contract. That’s not a small amount of money, but it’s surprising he accepted the deal, considering there are no other catchers on the free agent market, leading one to believe that Wieters would have been in line for a large payday had he rejected the qualifying offer. Either he found that the offers he would’ve received were lower than expected, thought he could make even more money on the free agent market after the 2016 season, enjoyed playing in Baltimore (the only organization he’s ever known), or a combination of all three.

The situation of Wieters accepting the qualifying offer has already been covered in excellent fashion (as usual) over at Camden Depot. On Monday, Jon Shepherd provided a very thorough and realistic set of options as to where the Orioles offseason may go as a result of this, while Tuesday saw Matt Perez laid out some reasons (in much more depth than what I have above) as to why Wieters may have accepted the qualifying offer. Since the situation has already been covered so well, I won’t be going over any of that in this piece and I suggest that you head over to Camden Depot and read the articles in their entirety.

If you read Camden Depot on even a semi-regular basis, you already know that the writers recently participated in an exercise outlining their individual plans as to how they thought the Orioles should approach the offseason, with Jon picking what he ultimately thought would be the best course of action. An index of the entire series can be found HERE. What I would like to do is take another look at my personal blueprint for the Orioles 2016 season, and see how Matt Wieters accepting the qualifying offer (which I did offer him in my hypothetical offseason) changes my strategy going forward.

My blueprint can be found HERE (it focused on building major league depth and a minor league system), but below is a quick recap of the free agent signings I would have made.

  • LHP J.A. Happ – 3 years, $24 million ($8 million annually, 3rd year an option)
  • OF Denard Span – 4 years, $56 million ($14 million annually, 4th year an option)
  • OF Gerardo Parra – 3 years, $24 million ($8 million annually)
  • UTIL Steve Pearce – 2 years, $12 million ($6 million annually)
  • 1B/DH Mike Napoli – 1 year, $5.25 million
  • OF/DH Matt Joyce – 1 year, $2 million

The original assumption was that after paying players currently on the roster, providing raises in arbitration (using the numbers provided at MLB Trade Rumors), and paying league minimum to players who have not accrued enough service time, I would have approximately $44.7 million to spend on free agents. Now that Wieters has accepted the qualifying offer I extended him, that number has decreased to $28.9 million. Let’s see what adjustments can be made while following the same set of rules (which includes NO trades). Continue reading →

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The Camden Highball (Episode 13): The Rosters They Are a-Movin’

Posted in Offense, Pitching, Podcast with tags , , , , , on June 9, 2015 by oriolesprovingground

Yesterday, there was a new episode of the Camden Highball podcast over at ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot to help you get the week started.  Pat and I talked to Jeff Long of Baseball Prospectus and Baltimore Sports and Life about Oliver Drake, Steve Pearce, and Manny Machado.

Direct Link to Article –> The Camden Highball: The Rosters They Are a-Movin

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The Camden Highball (Episode 11): Talkin’ Bats with Juan Baret

Posted in Pitching, Podcast with tags , , , on May 25, 2015 by oriolesprovingground

This week on the Camden Highball (the weekly podcast for ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot), Pat and I talk with local bat maker Juan Baret (of Baret Bats), who specializes in the construction and production of handcrafted customized wood baseball bats.  We also talk about how no one can score a run off of Mike Wright and the Brian Matusz ejection.

Direct Link to Article –> The Camden Highball: Talkin’ Bats with Juan Baret

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Orioles Give Up Too Much for Andrew Miller

Posted in Pitching, Trades with tags , , , , , , on August 1, 2014 by oriolesprovingground

One of the busiest trade deadlines that I can remember is now over and the Orioles came out of it with one move.  Similar to (one of) their deals at the 2013 trade deadline, Baltimore traded one of it’s more highly regarded prospects for 2 months of a reliever, sending LHP Eduardo Rodriguez to the Boston Red Sox for left handed reliever Andrew Miller.  It’s not a strategy I typically like, although Miller has been one of the most valuable relievers in all of baseball this year.  Today over at ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot, I give my taken the Rodriguez /Miller swap.

Direct Link to Article –> Orioles Give Up Too Much for Andrew Miller

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Zach Britton on Pace to (Probably) Make History

Posted in Pitching with tags , , , , , on July 25, 2014 by oriolesprovingground

Orioles closer Zach Britton was once part of the team’s “cavalry” of starting pitching prospects that included Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, and to a lesser extent Brandon Erbe and Brad Bergesen. #Blessed with an above average sinking fastball and slider (along with an average change-up), Britton was generally considered the 2nd or 3rd best prospect of the group, depending on who was asked, and he topped out as Keith Law’s #11 overall prospect in his 2011 rankings for ESPN (ESPN Insider required and recommended). Here’s a snippet of what Law had to say:

“There’s at least strong No. 2 starter potential here, but better command would give him more ceiling than that.”

Continue reading →

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Projecting the 2014 Orioles: Pitching

Posted in Offseason, Pitching, Projections with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 31, 2014 by oriolesprovingground

Last week we looked at what the Zips projection system over at Fangraphs thought the Baltimore Orioles position players were capable of in the 2014 season.  Comparing those projections to the wins (fWAR) the team received at each of the offensive positions in 2013 resulted in the 2014 Baltimore offense to be worth 4.7 wins worse than the previous year’s team.  Today we’ll take a look at the pitching staff and see if we can bring that number back into the positive.

Starting Pitcher

2014 Zips Projection

2014 Zips Projection

In 2013, Baltimore starting pitchers as a whole were one of the weakest parts of the roster.  The starters combined for only 7.4 fWAR, which placed them 24th among all major league starting rotations.  Much of that production came from Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman, and Miguel Gonzalez.  Scott Feldman and Bud Norris also added about 1 win each in a little less than half a seasons worth of work for the Orioles.  Other than that, 9 other pitchers produced anywhere in between 0.5 fWAR (Jason Hammel) and -0.8 fWAR (Freddy Garcia).  I looked at how the starting rotation fared in depth at ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot earlier in the offseason, so if you would like a more detailed analysis, you can find it here. Continue reading →

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Is Brian Matusz a Realistic Starting Rotation Option?

Posted in Pitching with tags , on March 13, 2014 by oriolesprovingground

Brian Matusz was the Orioles 1st Round pick (#4 overall) in the 2008 draft.  After beginning his career with so much promise, he faltered badly and found has found himself in the bullpen for the past year and a half.  Despite his success as a LOOGY out of the ‘pen, there has been talk of returning him to the starting rotation for the second offseason in a row.  Today at ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot, I took a look whether Brian Matusz’s chances at earning a spot in the rotation are realistic.  Fair warning, his 2011 season was atrocious, so you may want to cover your eyes during that section.

Direct Link to Article –> Is Brian Matusz a Realistic Starting Rotation Option?

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Scouring the League for Second Base Surplus

Posted in Offense, Offseason, Trades with tags , , , , , , , on November 23, 2013 by oriolesprovingground

The Orioles have a hole to fill at second base during the offseason.  That’s not exactly news.  On a rare Saturday post over (at least for me) at ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot, I am taking a look at teams that have a surplus of second basemen who may be willing trade partners to the Orioles.  The choices range from established veterans who may be expensive, in terms of prospects and salary commitments to former top prospects (or less established players) that may be a little cheaper, but come with a lot more risk.  Should the Orioles actually trade for any of these guys?  As always, it will depend on what they would have to give up to get them.

Direct Link to Article –> Scouring the League for Second Base Surplus

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Pitching Under Pressure

Posted in Pitching with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on September 10, 2013 by oriolesprovingground

The following post was written by Doug Nickerson, who is a frequent contributor at Orioles Proving Ground.  

As a continuation of my previous post on the Orioles’ ability to handle pressure, I am now diving into the pitching staff.  I wanted to determine which pitcher had consistently been able to succeed when the game was on the line.  Some starters are able to rise to the occasion and match the opposing pitcher shutout inning for shutout inning in a game that is a must win.  Sometimes that same pitcher is spotted a big lead, then slowly lets the other team right back into the game and then miraculously turns it around to pitch better when the game gets closer.

Unlike hitters, where OBP generally encompasses a batter’s ability to keep the inning rolling and scoring runs, I had a hard time finding one stat that would be the equivalent for a pitcher.  Inherent in all pitching statistics is the variability element of the fielding behind the pitcher.  With a poor fielding team behind him, the pitcher might react more stressed than if he knows he can trust his defense to make the plays.   This led me to having difficulty in selecting which statistic to compare the pitchers in high, medium, and low leverage situations.  Ultimately, I had to decide on reviewing multiple factors depending on the type of pitcher (starter vs. reliever).  For starters I looked at ERA, while for relievers I also factored in the percent of inherited runners that scored, since part of the relievers role is to bailout the starter and finish the inning without allowing any runs. Continue reading →

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Orioles Trade Options at the Deadline: Oliver Perez

Posted in Pitching, Trades, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , on July 18, 2013 by oriolesprovingground

The following post was written by Doug Nickerson in the very first guest post for Orioles Proving Ground.  Nickerson grew up as a Red Sox fan on Cape Cod, MA and is looking forward to writing about the Orioles with his knowledge of the AL East from a non-emotional perspective.  He moved to the DC area last August, and while he loves the city, he hates humidity and traffic.

Hi Orioles Fans!  Thanks for coming to Orioles Proving Ground.  This is my first contribution to OriolesPG; I hope you find it insightful and please let me know what you think.

As mentioned in Nate’s earlier post on laying out the needs of the Orioles coming into July, Baltimore needs pitching, pitching, and then more pitching. Dan Duquette looked to secure the back half of his rotation by acquiring starter Scott Feldman from the Cubs.  With the return of Wei-Yin Chen from the disabled list, and hopefully an improvement from either Jason Hammel (a FIP of 6.99 since June 1st says probably not), Zach Britton (pitched well but not far into games since June 18th with a high GB% of 54% and a BABIP of .282, and was optioned to AAA on July 9), or Kevin Gausman (pitched well out of the ‘pen but mixed results as a starter, and also optioned to AAA on July 9) the rotation will be stable and dependable 1-5.

That leaves the bullpen as a glaring need for improvement.  As with every year, teams in contention are looking for bullpen help as relievers performance can be fickle.  With the addition of another wildcard playoff spot, more teams are in contention and fewer teams are looking to sell.  Thus basic supply and demand can drive up the cost of these trade assets.  The Orioles will not be looking to be on the wrong end of a trade as the infamous Heathcliff Slocumb for Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe in 1997, or to a lesser extent, the Eric Gagne (horrific after trade) and cash (unneeded but best thing the Red Sox got) for David Murphy (a serviceable 10.2 WAR since trade), Kason Gabbard (forgettable), and Engel Beltre (23 and just called up to majors this week) trade.

Many rumors are circulating that the Orioles are looking into Oliver Perez.  I find this a high risk/high reward proposition for the Orioles.  Perez has done an amazing job re-making himself into a very good left-handed reliever in the last two years.  Thus, he also has a small sample size, which can give misleading data for a reliever.  However, this year he has held left handed batters to a .250 AVG while keeping right handed batters to an even lower .171 AVG.  This is exactly what the Orioles could use out of their ‘pen.  Darren O’Day, Brian Matusz, and Tommy Hunter have been tough on same side match ups but have done poorly against opposite handed batters.  The other mainstays of the bullpen have been mediocre to borderline bad to either side of the plate.  As seen from the chart below:

   

Split

IP

AVG

BABIP

FIP

xFIP

Darren O’Day

RHP

vs L

14.2

0.312

0.362

4.63

4.48

vs R

27

0.161

0.213

2.80

3.29

Brian Matusz

LHP

vs L

22.2

0.141

0.167

2.80

3.07

vs R

13.1

0.321

0.354

4.56

5.16

Tommy Hunter

RHP

vs L

24.1

0.278

0.263

6.14

4.42

vs R

28

0.118

0.162

2.02

3.43

T.J. McFarland

LHP

vs L

20

0.263

0.333

3.16

2.47

vs R

28

0.265

0.306

3.63

4.47

Troy Patton

LHP

vs L

16.2

0.269

0.278

4.56

3.9

vs R

22.1

0.277

0.333

3.82

4.62

Jim Johnson

RHP

vs L

24.1

0.250

0.296

3.92

3.83

vs R

19.1

0.264

0.333

3.22

3.49

Although Perez’s stats look great now, they do come with an asterisk of caution.  The issue is Perez’s pitching style.  He is a strikeout-flyball pitcher.  His HR/FB ratio has been 7.9% which is slightly better than the league average of 9.8%.  This number is not alarming since he’s playing half of his games at the deep caverns of SafeCo Field and all of his home runs allowed have been at home to right handed batters.  However, his FB% is much higher than the league average, 49.4% vs. 35.4%, and his career average is 47.4%.  With 32 of the final 66 games at home and 12 of the 34 away games being played at flyball unfriendly stadiums (Fenway, Yankee Stadium, Toronto), it can be assumed that his HR/FB ratio would increase with the Orioles.  Having Perez implode with a high HR/FB ratio is the biggest risk the Orioles would be taking in acquiring him.

Adding to his list of positives, Oliver Perez has an attractive contract to the Baltimore organization.  He is in the middle of a 1 year deal for $1.5 million for which they would only be responsible for the prorated remainder.  Trading for Perez, the Orioles would be wise to only offer a lower level prospect, maybe someone they rank no higher than their 15th best prospect, due to the lack of draft compensation if Perez leaves via free agency. This is a distinct possibility, especially if he continues to play as he has since becoming a reliever, he could play himself into a bigger contract that the Orioles would be unwilling to give him.  With only 2 more weeks until the non-waiver trade deadline, look out for more analysis on potential bullpen additions to the Orioles bullpen.

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