Archive for the Uncategorized Category

Farewell (for now) and Thank You

Posted in Uncategorized on March 5, 2020 by oriolesprovingground

One month into the 2012 minor league baseball season, I was offered a position with the Baltimore Orioles as a minor league video intern in Bowie for the Baysox. Although the opportunity wasn’t handed to me (I did have to interview), I would be lying if I didn’t say that being in the “right place, at the right time” had a lot to do with me getting that opportunity. I spent the rest of the summer attending Baysox home games, video-taping hitters and pitchers. If you happened to attend a Baysox game in 2012, you probably saw me running around to different spots in the stadium with a camera on a tripod. It was truly an amazing experience that provided me the opportunity to get a glimpse at the inner workings of a professional baseball organization.

Despite being the most fun job I’ve probably ever had, the schedule could get grueling. I kept my regular job, so there was not much sleep to be had while Bowie was in the middle of a home stand. So when given the opportunity to come back in the same capacity the following season, I politely declined. In an effort to stay connected to baseball, I decided to start my own blog writing about baseball, and that blog became Orioles Proving Ground. After some initial blog posts and incredibly sparse readership, I reached out to Camden Depot to see if they would add my site to the list of links featuring prominent Orioles blogs. Instead, I was given the opportunity to write a couple of guest-posts, which ultimately resulted in Jon Shepherd allowing me to join the site as a regular contributor.

I cannot begin to express how much of a big deal this was (and still is) to me. I had never really thought of myself as a writer, and to be given the chance to write in the same space as some of the baseball writers I looked up to the most was something I never even considered. In addition to the (obvious) boost in readership, writing for Camden Depot allowed me the opportunity to produce podcasts, discuss baseball and interact with some of the best baseball writers and readers on the internet (not to mention interview Doug Glanville for an article).

Overall, I ended up writing 91 articles for Camden Depot. Some were good, some could have been better, and at least one of them made the majority of readers pretty angry. Here are a couple of my personal favorites:

As the years of baseball writing on the internet went on, other life events and responsibilities (all good, thankfully) started to take higher priority and resulted in my writing less and less. Not only did I not write as much, but I began to feel as if my writing wasn’t contributing as much to the overall Orioles conversation, especially with so many other great Baltimore Orioles writers on the internet. When Camden Depot decided to shut down, I was given an opportunity to contribute to Baltimore Sports and Life. While initially hesitant to join BSL due to the same reasons above that prevented me from writing more, I accepted in the hopes that I could somehow find the time to provide meaningful insight to the Orioles minor league system. While I am proud of the work I contributed to BSL, finding the time continued to be elusive.

In addition to the 5 years writing for Camden Depot and the 1 year with BSL, I’ve hosted Orioles Proving Ground and wrote about baseball for almost 7 years, and it’s now time for my tiny Baltimore Orioles related space on the internet to close its doors, at least for the foreseeable future. I am very proud of the work I published over these years and am extremely humbled and honored to have been given the opportunity to work with the talented writers at Camden Depot (many of whom have turned great analysis into a baseball career) and Baltimore Sports and Life. My only regret is that I reached a point where I could no longer keep up with all of the great baseball analysis (in Baltimore and beyond) in both quality and quantity.

In the end, this “farewell” post is a bit self-serving. I do not believe that my Orioles writing has been missed, and no one has been clamoring for me to write more. There have not been swarms of Orioles fans checking this site daily for updates. If anyone HAS noticed that I have not been writing as much, they would have likely assumed that I just quietly stepped away, which wouldn’t necessarily have been wrong. However, it wouldn’t feel right to let this site end without taking the time for one final post and express my gratitude to some of the individuals who not only allowed me a high profile place to write about baseball, but also helped me become a better writer along the way.

So thank you to Jon Shepherd, Matt Kremnitzer, Chris Stoner, and all of the other writers I crossed path with at Camden Depot (including my podcast partner Pat Holden) and Baltimore Sports and Life, as well as the readers and commenters (most of whom were great) who helped make it that much more fun. See you at the ballpark.

Can Recent Draft Picks Provide a Roadmap for Getting Adley Rutschman to the Majors?

Posted in Uncategorized on March 5, 2020 by oriolesprovingground

This article was originally scheduled to run around August 23, 2019 on Baltimore Sports and Life. It never did due to a similar article being published a couple of months earlier. I am posting it here so it can be included in my collection of writings.

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Recently, Zach Spedden and I discussed some post-draft, second half questions dealing with the Orioles minor league system. One of those questions involved estimating when Adley Rutschman may find himself in the big leagues. Admittedly, I hypothesized that Rutschman may find himself in the big leagues by the end of the 2021 season, assuming the Orioles don’t participate in any service time shenanigans (Zach guessed a possible 2020 late season call up). Based on what I think their window to contend is going to be (hint: it’s not anytime soon in my opinion), they’d probably benefit from some service time manipulation, though I believe they should bring him up when he’s ready.

With that in mind, I wanted to look and see how other recent top college draft picks have progressed through the minor leagues after being drafted. I looked at college position players drafted somewhere between picks 1 and 5 over the previous 5 drafts, hoping that they may provide some insight on Rutschman’s journey through the minors. Obviously, how well Rutschman performs will ultimately determine his timeline, though the Orioles don’t really have any reason to rush. Just as a note, I am not including Brendan McKay, since it appears that the Rays are having him focus on primarily on pitching in the majors, at least in the short term. Continue reading

A Little Bit of Housecleaning

Posted in Uncategorized on December 10, 2018 by oriolesprovingground

If anyone has been to this page recently, you’ve probably noticed that there haven’t been many posts. The truth is that I have posted since the essentially Dylan Bundy painting post, but all of them have been posted on Camden Depot, without my usual companion “summary” here on Orioles Proving Ground. As you can see, it’s still not much of a catalog, as my writing has been sparse the last year or two, and that is probably being generous. Anyway, here is a rundown of the posts I’ve authored at Camden Depot since April of 2016:

Blueprint for the 2017 Orioles (Option 3): Let’s Get Versatile (10/27/2016)

For what it is worth, the title of this post was supposed to be sung to the tune of Olivia Newton-John’s “Let Get Physical”

The Orioles Should Start Planning Their 2018 Starting Rotation (12/07/2016)

MLB Winter Meetings: The Best (Worst) Place to Get a Job in Baseball (12/21/2016)

Has Ubaldo Jimenez Always Struggled in the First Inning? (01/04/2017)

The 2017 Orioles: Creativity Required (04/03/2017)

Aggressive Minor League Assignment for DJ Stewart Makes Sense (04/12/2017)

The Orioles Have Positional Depth; Lack Positional DEPTH (04/17/2017)

J.J. Hardy Needs to Make an Adjustment (05/15/2017)

Everyone’s Available: Going for It in 2017 (05/29/2017)

Darren O’Day’s Small Change in Slider Use (06/05/2017)

Does Dylan Bundy Struggle Against Left-Handed Batters? (06/19/2017)

The Orioles Offense is Not Good (07/03/2017)

Does a Trade Market for Manny Machado Even Exist at the 2017 Trade Deadline? (07/17/2017)

The One Move the Orioles Should Really Make Today (07/31/2017)

Orioles Don’t Actually Consider Themselves a Playoff Contender (08/21/2017)

Coming to the Defense of Jeremy Hellickson (Sort Of) (09/18/2017)

Wade Miley Couldn’t Finish Off Hitters in 2017 (10/03/2017)

Blueprint for the 2018 Orioles (Option 1): So Yu Think Yu Can Pitch (10/16/2017)

Orioles 2018 Blueprint Follow-Up: Why I Decided to Non-Tender Zach Britton (11/09/2017)

Is There a Potential Bad Contract Swap With the Giants? (11/21/2017)

Non-Tendered Candidates for the Orioles to Consider (12/04/2017)

Player Opt-Out Clauses Could (Have) Really Help(ed) the Orioles This Offseason (02/19/2018)

That’s it. Looks like a long list now that I am looking at it (and it’s more than I remember doing), however over the course of two and half years, that isn’t much. As anyone reading this is probably aware, Camden Depot shut down at the end of the 2018 season after 11+ years. I really enjoyed and appreciated the time I spent writing there and will hopefully be posting additional thoughts about that in the near future.

Dylan Bundy: Painting the Corner

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , on April 8, 2016 by oriolesprovingground

A couple of days ago, the writers at ESPN Sweetspot Orioles blog Camden Depot dedicated an entire day to the return of a healthy Dylan Bundy. It was labeled as #BundyBash, with a plethora of articles dedicated to Bundy were posted throughout the day. I contributed to this effort as well. Did you know that Dylan Bundy took up painting in the offseason? He did, and my post focused on critiquing his artwork. Obviously I’m not an art critic and the post is meant to be fun. So head on over to Camden Depot to check out my critique of his paintings, as well as all the other Dylan Bundy related posts associated with #BundyBash.

Direct Link to Article –> Dylan Bundy: Painting the Corner

Observations from the New York-Penn All-Star Game

Posted in Minor Leagues, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , on August 20, 2015 by oriolesprovingground

Tuesday night I travelled with a couple of friends up to Aberdeen to catch the Short-Season New York-Penn League All-Star game.  I wrote about some of my observations from the game for ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot.  The post includes notes on the two Orioles representatives as well as a couple of other players, including a former 1st round pick of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Direct Link to Article –> Observations from the New York-Penn League All-Star Game

A Conversation with Former MLB Outfielder Doug Glanville

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , on May 7, 2015 by oriolesprovingground

Yesterday I had to the opportunity to talk so baseball with former major league outfielder and current ESPN MLB analyst Doug Glanville.  We mostly chatted about Adam Jones and defensive metrics, as well on his thoughts about the Orioles chances in the 2015 season.  Head over to ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot to check out the recap of our conversation.

Direct Link to Article –> A Conversation with Former MLB Outfielder Doug Glanville

Watching a Strange Ballgame in Baltimore

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , on April 30, 2015 by oriolesprovingground

Yesterday, the Orioles played the White Sox in front of an empty stadium at Camden Yards.  The game was televised, so I watched the majority of it and today at ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot, I talk a little bit about how strange that was.

Direct Link to Article –> Watching a Strange Ballgame in Baltimore

The Misunderstood Relationship Between Team Chemistry and Sabermetrics

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , on March 6, 2015 by oriolesprovingground

After inadvertently taking the entire month of February off, I’m finally back with a new article.  Nearly two weeks ago, MASN writer Steve Melewski created an uproar by tweeting the following.

Today at ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot I examine that while he’s technically right, he misses the mark.

Direct Link to Article –> The Misunderstood Relationship Between Team Chemistry and Sabermetrics

Orioles Proving Ground Now on Twitter!

Posted in Uncategorized on August 21, 2013 by oriolesprovingground

The title of this post basically says it all.  Orioles Proving Ground is now on Twitter (and actually has been for about a week, so…sorry for the late notice).  Follow us @OriolesPG for links to blog posts (mine or other posts I find interesting), thoughts, observations, etc.

Orioles Trade Options at the Deadline: Oliver Perez

Posted in Pitching, Trades, Uncategorized with tags , , , , , on July 18, 2013 by oriolesprovingground

The following post was written by Doug Nickerson in the very first guest post for Orioles Proving Ground.  Nickerson grew up as a Red Sox fan on Cape Cod, MA and is looking forward to writing about the Orioles with his knowledge of the AL East from a non-emotional perspective.  He moved to the DC area last August, and while he loves the city, he hates humidity and traffic.

Hi Orioles Fans!  Thanks for coming to Orioles Proving Ground.  This is my first contribution to OriolesPG; I hope you find it insightful and please let me know what you think.

As mentioned in Nate’s earlier post on laying out the needs of the Orioles coming into July, Baltimore needs pitching, pitching, and then more pitching. Dan Duquette looked to secure the back half of his rotation by acquiring starter Scott Feldman from the Cubs.  With the return of Wei-Yin Chen from the disabled list, and hopefully an improvement from either Jason Hammel (a FIP of 6.99 since June 1st says probably not), Zach Britton (pitched well but not far into games since June 18th with a high GB% of 54% and a BABIP of .282, and was optioned to AAA on July 9), or Kevin Gausman (pitched well out of the ‘pen but mixed results as a starter, and also optioned to AAA on July 9) the rotation will be stable and dependable 1-5.

That leaves the bullpen as a glaring need for improvement.  As with every year, teams in contention are looking for bullpen help as relievers performance can be fickle.  With the addition of another wildcard playoff spot, more teams are in contention and fewer teams are looking to sell.  Thus basic supply and demand can drive up the cost of these trade assets.  The Orioles will not be looking to be on the wrong end of a trade as the infamous Heathcliff Slocumb for Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe in 1997, or to a lesser extent, the Eric Gagne (horrific after trade) and cash (unneeded but best thing the Red Sox got) for David Murphy (a serviceable 10.2 WAR since trade), Kason Gabbard (forgettable), and Engel Beltre (23 and just called up to majors this week) trade.

Many rumors are circulating that the Orioles are looking into Oliver Perez.  I find this a high risk/high reward proposition for the Orioles.  Perez has done an amazing job re-making himself into a very good left-handed reliever in the last two years.  Thus, he also has a small sample size, which can give misleading data for a reliever.  However, this year he has held left handed batters to a .250 AVG while keeping right handed batters to an even lower .171 AVG.  This is exactly what the Orioles could use out of their ‘pen.  Darren O’Day, Brian Matusz, and Tommy Hunter have been tough on same side match ups but have done poorly against opposite handed batters.  The other mainstays of the bullpen have been mediocre to borderline bad to either side of the plate.  As seen from the chart below:

   

Split

IP

AVG

BABIP

FIP

xFIP

Darren O’Day

RHP

vs L

14.2

0.312

0.362

4.63

4.48

vs R

27

0.161

0.213

2.80

3.29

Brian Matusz

LHP

vs L

22.2

0.141

0.167

2.80

3.07

vs R

13.1

0.321

0.354

4.56

5.16

Tommy Hunter

RHP

vs L

24.1

0.278

0.263

6.14

4.42

vs R

28

0.118

0.162

2.02

3.43

T.J. McFarland

LHP

vs L

20

0.263

0.333

3.16

2.47

vs R

28

0.265

0.306

3.63

4.47

Troy Patton

LHP

vs L

16.2

0.269

0.278

4.56

3.9

vs R

22.1

0.277

0.333

3.82

4.62

Jim Johnson

RHP

vs L

24.1

0.250

0.296

3.92

3.83

vs R

19.1

0.264

0.333

3.22

3.49

Although Perez’s stats look great now, they do come with an asterisk of caution.  The issue is Perez’s pitching style.  He is a strikeout-flyball pitcher.  His HR/FB ratio has been 7.9% which is slightly better than the league average of 9.8%.  This number is not alarming since he’s playing half of his games at the deep caverns of SafeCo Field and all of his home runs allowed have been at home to right handed batters.  However, his FB% is much higher than the league average, 49.4% vs. 35.4%, and his career average is 47.4%.  With 32 of the final 66 games at home and 12 of the 34 away games being played at flyball unfriendly stadiums (Fenway, Yankee Stadium, Toronto), it can be assumed that his HR/FB ratio would increase with the Orioles.  Having Perez implode with a high HR/FB ratio is the biggest risk the Orioles would be taking in acquiring him.

Adding to his list of positives, Oliver Perez has an attractive contract to the Baltimore organization.  He is in the middle of a 1 year deal for $1.5 million for which they would only be responsible for the prorated remainder.  Trading for Perez, the Orioles would be wise to only offer a lower level prospect, maybe someone they rank no higher than their 15th best prospect, due to the lack of draft compensation if Perez leaves via free agency. This is a distinct possibility, especially if he continues to play as he has since becoming a reliever, he could play himself into a bigger contract that the Orioles would be unwilling to give him.  With only 2 more weeks until the non-waiver trade deadline, look out for more analysis on potential bullpen additions to the Orioles bullpen.