This post is a little bit late, but the Orioles were busy during the hours leading up to the trade deadline. They ended up swinging deals for Gerardo Parra of the Brewers and Junior Lake of the Cubs. I wrote about the latter for ESPN Sweetspot Orioles blog Camden Depot.
Direct Link to Article –> Orioles Deal Tommy Hunter fr Outfield Depth
About one week ago, the boys over at MLB Trade Rumors indicated that the Orioles were one of four teams that were interested in Heath Bell, which prompted the following reaction…
I’m almost positive they’re joking RT @mlbtraderumors: Orioles, Mariners Among Four Teams Interested In Heath Bell http://t.co/yZQbt2zsOb
— OriolesProvingGround (@OriolesPG) May 16, 2014
Turns out the Orioles weren’t joking, as they signed Bell to a minor league contract two days later. It’s not like the Baltimore bullpen doesn’t need help. They are currently have the 5th worst FIP in all of baseball (or 26th best if you’re an optimist), and have barely been better than replacement level as a group (0.3 fWAR). Additionally, the bullpen only strikes out 18.0% of batters faced, which places them 28th in baseball (not good). Ryan Webb, Darren O’Day, and Zach Britton are the only relievers who can be trusted at this point, so taking a flier on Bell isn’t the worst idea. Continue reading
After trading Jim Johnson during the offseason, the Orioles were left without a closer. They attempted to replace Johnson by signing Grant Balfour, but we all know how that ended. Following the failed signing of Balfour, they looked at their in-house options, and Tommy Hunter emerged as the team’s closer towards the end of spring training. Hunter has been pretty good so far, converting 7 of his 8 save opportunities. However, it’s the way he’s been converting those saves that caught my attention. Today I have a post on ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog, Camden Depot that looks at how Tommy Hunter in the closer role will keep Orioles fans on the edge of their seats all summer.
Direct Link to Article –> Tommy Hunter: Pitching on the Edge
Last week we looked at what the Zips projection system over at Fangraphs thought the Baltimore Orioles position players were capable of in the 2014 season. Comparing those projections to the wins (fWAR) the team received at each of the offensive positions in 2013 resulted in the 2014 Baltimore offense to be worth 4.7 wins worse than the previous year’s team. Today we’ll take a look at the pitching staff and see if we can bring that number back into the positive.
Starting Pitcher
2014 Zips Projection
In 2013, Baltimore starting pitchers as a whole were one of the weakest parts of the roster. The starters combined for only 7.4 fWAR, which placed them 24th among all major league starting rotations. Much of that production came from Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman, and Miguel Gonzalez. Scott Feldman and Bud Norris also added about 1 win each in a little less than half a seasons worth of work for the Orioles. Other than that, 9 other pitchers produced anywhere in between 0.5 fWAR (Jason Hammel) and -0.8 fWAR (Freddy Garcia). I looked at how the starting rotation fared in depth at ESPN Sweetspot Network Orioles blog Camden Depot earlier in the offseason, so if you would like a more detailed analysis, you can find it here. Continue reading
Yesterday the Orioles made the signing of right-handed relief pitcher Ryan Webb official, after Webb passed his physical. Webb signed a 2-year, $4.5 million contract with the team. Other than the Jim Johnson trade and signing a bunch of AAAA players (guys who are too good for AAA, but not good enough to be a major league regular), the signing of Webb has been the most significant addition for Baltimore so far this offseason, which seems to be leaving most of the Baltimore fan base a little restless as numerous free agents are off the board and the winter meetings are beginning to wind down. Since Webb has played his entire major league career in San Diego and Miami, most of you have probably never seen him pitch. With that in mind, I am providing a first look of Ryan Webb over at ESPN Swetspot Network Orioles blog, Camden Depot. He may be their first “major” free agent signing, but hopefully he’s not their last as the team has multiple holes to fill.
Direct Link to Article –> A First Look at Ryan Webb
The following post was written by Doug Nickerson in the very first guest post for Orioles Proving Ground. Nickerson grew up as a Red Sox fan on Cape Cod, MA and is looking forward to writing about the Orioles with his knowledge of the AL East from a non-emotional perspective. He moved to the DC area last August, and while he loves the city, he hates humidity and traffic.
Hi Orioles Fans! Thanks for coming to Orioles Proving Ground. This is my first contribution to OriolesPG; I hope you find it insightful and please let me know what you think.
As mentioned in Nate’s earlier post on laying out the needs of the Orioles coming into July, Baltimore needs pitching, pitching, and then more pitching. Dan Duquette looked to secure the back half of his rotation by acquiring starter Scott Feldman from the Cubs. With the return of Wei-Yin Chen from the disabled list, and hopefully an improvement from either Jason Hammel (a FIP of 6.99 since June 1st says probably not), Zach Britton (pitched well but not far into games since June 18th with a high GB% of 54% and a BABIP of .282, and was optioned to AAA on July 9), or Kevin Gausman (pitched well out of the ‘pen but mixed results as a starter, and also optioned to AAA on July 9) the rotation will be stable and dependable 1-5.
That leaves the bullpen as a glaring need for improvement. As with every year, teams in contention are looking for bullpen help as relievers performance can be fickle. With the addition of another wildcard playoff spot, more teams are in contention and fewer teams are looking to sell. Thus basic supply and demand can drive up the cost of these trade assets. The Orioles will not be looking to be on the wrong end of a trade as the infamous Heathcliff Slocumb for Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe in 1997, or to a lesser extent, the Eric Gagne (horrific after trade) and cash (unneeded but best thing the Red Sox got) for David Murphy (a serviceable 10.2 WAR since trade), Kason Gabbard (forgettable), and Engel Beltre (23 and just called up to majors this week) trade.
Many rumors are circulating that the Orioles are looking into Oliver Perez. I find this a high risk/high reward proposition for the Orioles. Perez has done an amazing job re-making himself into a very good left-handed reliever in the last two years. Thus, he also has a small sample size, which can give misleading data for a reliever. However, this year he has held left handed batters to a .250 AVG while keeping right handed batters to an even lower .171 AVG. This is exactly what the Orioles could use out of their ‘pen. Darren O’Day, Brian Matusz, and Tommy Hunter have been tough on same side match ups but have done poorly against opposite handed batters. The other mainstays of the bullpen have been mediocre to borderline bad to either side of the plate. As seen from the chart below:
|
Split |
IP |
AVG |
BABIP |
FIP |
xFIP |
||
|
RHP |
vs L |
14.2 |
0.312 |
0.362 |
4.63 |
4.48 |
|
|
vs R |
27 |
0.161 |
0.213 |
2.80 |
3.29 |
||
|
LHP |
vs L |
22.2 |
0.141 |
0.167 |
2.80 |
3.07 |
|
|
vs R |
13.1 |
0.321 |
0.354 |
4.56 |
5.16 |
||
|
RHP |
vs L |
24.1 |
0.278 |
0.263 |
6.14 |
4.42 |
|
|
vs R |
28 |
0.118 |
0.162 |
2.02 |
3.43 |
||
|
LHP |
vs L |
20 |
0.263 |
0.333 |
3.16 |
2.47 |
|
|
vs R |
28 |
0.265 |
0.306 |
3.63 |
4.47 |
||
|
LHP |
vs L |
16.2 |
0.269 |
0.278 |
4.56 |
3.9 |
|
|
vs R |
22.1 |
0.277 |
0.333 |
3.82 |
4.62 |
||
|
RHP |
vs L |
24.1 |
0.250 |
0.296 |
3.92 |
3.83 |
|
|
vs R |
19.1 |
0.264 |
0.333 |
3.22 |
3.49 |
Although Perez’s stats look great now, they do come with an asterisk of caution. The issue is Perez’s pitching style. He is a strikeout-flyball pitcher. His HR/FB ratio has been 7.9% which is slightly better than the league average of 9.8%. This number is not alarming since he’s playing half of his games at the deep caverns of SafeCo Field and all of his home runs allowed have been at home to right handed batters. However, his FB% is much higher than the league average, 49.4% vs. 35.4%, and his career average is 47.4%. With 32 of the final 66 games at home and 12 of the 34 away games being played at flyball unfriendly stadiums (Fenway, Yankee Stadium, Toronto), it can be assumed that his HR/FB ratio would increase with the Orioles. Having Perez implode with a high HR/FB ratio is the biggest risk the Orioles would be taking in acquiring him.
Adding to his list of positives, Oliver Perez has an attractive contract to the Baltimore organization. He is in the middle of a 1 year deal for $1.5 million for which they would only be responsible for the prorated remainder. Trading for Perez, the Orioles would be wise to only offer a lower level prospect, maybe someone they rank no higher than their 15th best prospect, due to the lack of draft compensation if Perez leaves via free agency. This is a distinct possibility, especially if he continues to play as he has since becoming a reliever, he could play himself into a bigger contract that the Orioles would be unwilling to give him. With only 2 more weeks until the non-waiver trade deadline, look out for more analysis on potential bullpen additions to the Orioles bullpen.
Orioles Proving Ground 